Deep Space Wandering Fleet-Chapter 535: Afterword and the ’Small Filter’ Theory

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Phew, the story of Volume Nine has finally come to an end. Every time I finish a volume, I always feel a genuine sense of relief.

The stories of the other human branches will be written somewhat more simply, without detailed descriptions. As long as everyone understands the general direction, that should be enough!

Some say revealing virtual world technology is too dangerous, but in fact, it’s not, since the humans of Gliese 581 also possess this technology. How else could the Kunlun Mountain Fleet have safely departed in the face of eternal life technology? It’s just that the people of Captain Star don’t have it.

This book has reached 1.2 million words. It’s no longer just my story; it’s a story we share. If it were poorly written, everyone would be unhappy, and I would blame myself.

Fortunately, I’m quite satisfied with the entire trading market plot. I wrote about some ordinary interstellar civilizations, as well as some higher-order civilizations, like the Gaia Faction, the Amoeba Faction, the Deep Red Industrial Union, etc., filling in some gaps and also digging new ones...

And then we successfully opened a new map and went to other places with the Tos People.

The most challenging part of writing a web novel is introducing a new map. A new map is essential to keep the content fresh. However, haphazardly introducing new maps is of no benefit other than criticism from readers. If the map is logically introduced, there shouldn’t be any problems!

So... will the new humans ever come back?

Of course, they won’t. If they came back, what would there be to write about? The new humans might lend a hand to their kindred siblings, but they’re unlikely to abandon their bright future for siblings they haven’t seen in thousands of years, right?

Some say the main theme of this book lacks the despair and gravity of the Dark Forest theory and therefore lacks a bit of passion.

That’s just the way it is. The core theories of this book are the "Mediocrity Principle" and the "Small Filter Theory," which inherently follow a boil-the-frog-slowly scenario. Civilizations don’t fight each other to the death like in "The Three Body Problem"; they just get gradually swept away by time, so there’s naturally less of a sense of urgency.

Any do-or-die war seems passionate, but wars need motives. This book is set in a universe where resources hugely surpass the needs of civilizations, so there’s naturally no motive for war. That’s a fundamental tone decided by the core tenets of the story.

If I changed it haphazardly, the entire book would fall apart.

Now let’s talk about the so-called "Small Filter Theory," which was mentioned a lot in earlier content but was never highlighted, so I’ll write about it in detail here.

In my first book, "Under Deep Space," I focused on the Great Filter Theory.

It posits that after a certain point in their development, civilizations face a tremendous barrier, one which perhaps only one in ten million or even one in a hundred million can cross. Thus, the vast majority of civilizations stagnate before reaching an interstellar stage. freewebnoveℓ.com

The Small Filter Theory, however, is a variant of this. It suggests that in the process of development, there might not be such a large barrier with an extremely low success rate, but rather a series of invisible small barriers.

The probability of crossing these small barriers isn’t as terrifying as the larger ones; for instance, the odds might be one in two, or one in three, which is significantly higher than one in a billion.

However, the number of small barriers is extremely large, and when their probabilities multiplied together, it also becomes a very, very small number.

This method is like boiling a frog in warm water; it doesn’t seem so shocking when written in a novel. But I think, in reality, small filters might be more probable than large filters. Humans often lack self-awareness, thinking that with a fifty percent chance, a little effort will see them through, but it’s not the case. You might get past one, but can you get past the second? If even one "small filter" can’t be passed, humans won’t be able to enter the interstellar era.

It’s like the various exams for civil service; in the end, only a few make it through to the last round.

So, how many "small filters" are there in this book, or in reality?

First is the natural conditions like oxygen, which refers to an oxygen concentration that can support the combustion of organic matter. If a planet lacks even combustion phenomena and can’t smelt metals, or lacks certain rare metals, then it likely loses the possibility to climb technologically.

Second is the social system. Some societal systems may constrain people’s thinking, close off their ideas, trapping the entire society in a recurring medieval cycle, falling into paradigm traps.

Third are religious factors. Humans have still not freed themselves from religious constraints. This is a war of ideas between 21st-century values and 7th-century values, and it’s too early to tell who will win. However, judging by the current global situation, there is a trend of ignorance gradually triumphing over civilization.

The fourth issue is the economic system. Capitalism is shortsighted and the pursuit of excessive profits leads to a gradual distortion of people’s values and morals. Since the end of the US-USSR hegemony, humanity has never set foot on the Moon again.

The fifth issue concerns the unification of the globe. Colonizing space, even just the Moon, is a daunting task for a single country. It requires at least the integration of half, or a third, of the world’s resources to reduce internal conflicts.

However, looking at the world over the past hundred years, the number of nations has clearly increased, not decreased. In the not-too-distant future, this trend of increase is expected to continue with no signs of decreasing.

The sixth issue is whether key technologies such as Controlled Nuclear Fusion and recyclable rockets may emerge, which could greatly reduce the cost of aerospace engineering.

The window of opportunity for Controlled Nuclear Fusion might be around twenty to thirty years. Currently, photovoltaic solar energy has become cost-competitive, and in the next twenty to thirty years, it will become increasingly competitive with technological advancements. By 2050, Xia Country will be facing severe aging, and if the progress bar for Controlled Nuclear Fusion hasn’t exceeded 50%, it’s doubtful there will be spare funds to devote to such an endeavor. (As future projections are very complex, I won’t elaborate further here.)

The seventh issue is the feasibility of hibernation technology. The wealthy who were frozen fifty years ago are probably beyond thawing now.

So will real hibernation technology emerge in fifty years?

If human hibernation technology doesn’t exist, then interstellar travel at the Constant Star Level becomes a far-fetched idea; Proxima Centauri is out of reach, at most humanity could only circle within the Solar System. Of course, if we manage to travel within the Solar System, that would already be quite impressive.

The eighth issue is corruption. If even the scientific community is so corrupt, what drive does a civilization have to progress? Yet corruption is normalized and unavoidable.

The ninth issue is the aging of the high-quality population. All high-quality individuals are caught in an aging crisis, whereas regions like South Asia are experiencing population explosions, which could lead to a food crisis within a decade. The risks that may arise are unpredictable.

And so on and so forth... including a plethora of unlisted issues.

This is the theory of the small filter. How to solve these complex issues is uncertain; everyone knows they exist, but we feel powerless to address them.

It’s possible that humans might solve them, or perhaps never will.

Humans may have just been lucky to pass through the earlier small filters, but what about the ones to come?

When all probabilities are multiplied, it results in a very slim chance. The only thing we ordinary people can do is to make the most of each day, love our country, and cultivate our own ability to discern right from wrong. There are plenty of rumors on the internet these days, and the number of the Hated Country Party that incite emotions are more than one might imagine.

Perhaps most civilizations in the Universe face various issues like this.

Of course, novels are idealized models; society isn’t as intricate as reality, or else it wouldn’t be possible to continue writing.

This book is now midway through, with many plot threads. Since I’ve written a similar book before, I’m struggling with a lack of inspiration and finding it difficult to write.

Sometimes just sitting in front of the computer, doing nothing.

The subscriptions for this book have not reached the expected results, and there hasn’t been a proper recommendation for more than two months. I still hope for everyone’s support; for every legitimate reader, there might be a hundred using pirated versions.

More support equals more motivation.

Only on Qidian is there a 50% subscription revenue share for the authors, while other channels through Yuewen offer 25%. As for other platforms, like Apple subscriptions, Apple takes a 30% cut first, and then the authors split the rest with the site.

Reading platforms like Baidu and Zhuishushenqi don’t offer any revenue at all. Don’t naively spend money subscribing on these small sites, giving away money for nothing, thinking you supported the author when in fact you did not.

The exploitation by capitalists is truly fierce!

Okay, back to the main topic, one volume is completed, and I’m planning to take a day off tomorrow.

Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas in advance!

Lastly, the book club is about to get upgraded, so I ask everyone to check-in; there’s a red check-in button at the top of the book club. Just hit a few likes and you’ll be upgraded in no time!