Reincarnated as Nikolai II-Chapter 253: East Asian New Order (1)

Capitalism and credit creation.

Even if one doesn’t precisely understand the relationship and concepts between these two words, anyone who has received higher education in this era at least knows that this capitalist system stimulates economic growth through bank loans and investments.

This kind of growth is more fundamental and basic than government measures like interest rate cuts or tax reductions that openly encourage economic growth.

And all lending and investment activities that occur here are credit creation.

In peaceful times, this credit grows infinitely.

Because if there’s no famine, agricultural products will naturally be harvested in autumn.

Because companies won’t go bankrupt overnight unless war breaks out suddenly.

Because if yesterday was ordinary and today is ordinary, tomorrow will likely be ordinary too.

Credit endlessly creates replicas as if self-replicating, increasing its total volume.

However, when the Great Depression comes.

’There’s nothing to trust in this world.’

Tomorrow’s commodity prices. The value of my house. The survival of businesses. Even the promises politicians make. Even my immediate job.

Everything becomes untrustworthy.

When infinite growth collapses, what takes root in people’s hearts is infinite distrust.

Unless that distrust is resolved, modern capitalism cannot return to its track.

Most 21st-century scholars say the cause of the Great Depression was "falling into a state of excess facilities due to excessive capital accumulation over decades."

It’s not wrong, but that’s not everything. Those over-invested facilities eventually operated well as consumption continued, and consumers smiled due to competition between companies and falling production prices.

However, if we change the question to why the great powers couldn’t recover from the Great Depression-

’Lack of investment, decreased spending, reduced consumption, economic decline.’

It’s not just because of the vicious cycle where jobs disappear and businesses vanish leading to reduced consumption again, but simply because no one had a bright outlook for the future.

Human distrust. As society develops, nothing is scarier than this.

Setting aside these fundamental discussions, what surprised me in my conversation with Stolypin was how much he knew when bringing up these topics.

"...Issuing the imperial decree is also meant to reduce the Prime Minister’s political burden."

"Your Majesty’s authority. It’s to raise business through the credit created by the numerous people who believe in that authority."

Many countries, including the United States, will probably lower their average 4% interest rates to below 1%. Even then, no one would borrow money.

On the other hand, the imperial decree itself becomes registered as law and becomes a goal that must be protected at any cost to preserve this Russian Empire.

’That’s why after the Russian Revolution broke out, the October Manifesto stated that the Tsar’s decrees couldn’t take effect without parliamentary approval.’

Of course, the cost of bypassing parliament and state councilors is not small.

For whatever reason, if it’s not upheld, the Tsar’s authority is damaged.

It’s not for nothing that even my authoritarian father, in the days before the State Duma, issued decrees at most three times a year, and even those were bland in content.

"Your assessment?"

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"While listening to Prime Minister Stolypin’s argument, I was about to shout ’How dare you,’ but certainly, government power alone is insufficient to realize his grand plan."

"That would be so."

The Duma is no longer a puppet, and there are quite a few who would pounce when the Prime Minister says ’Let’s pour the budget into the 25,000-kilometer national project!’

Moreover, the plan needs to be large enough to shake the market, but if it sounds too fantastical, capital procurement might be blocked from the start.

But if I put my hand on this.

’At least capital procurement will work out somehow. If we add a bit of imperial money on top, it can’t help but attract more.’

Any imperial citizen would think ’Unless the government and Duma are attempting collective suicide, they’ll make this project succeed.’

"Are you concerned about being too dependent on His Majesty the Tsar?"

"It would be a lie to say I’m not concerned. However, when that day comes... I won’t be able to worry about such things. If it’s effective, I could give not just decrees but even my personal funds."

"Then I won’t oppose it. Whatever it becomes, public works are essential."

If the empire were still in the 90s when state-owned enterprises led industry, the government might have pushed mixed economy while complementing and even leading the market’s imperfections.

However, since all growth in the empire ultimately depends on individuals and companies, perhaps the government’s role must also change now.

Stolypin hopes that I will share in bearing that role.

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’Will problems burst elsewhere like a balloon effect due to the decree’s promulgation, or will everyone endure the pain while believing in me alone.’

Even I can’t seem to be certain of that result yet.

However, this is the answer provided by our new Prime Minister, Stolypin.

Meanwhile, Kokovtsov and I had found our solution in a completely different place.

"No colonies, no accumulated wealth, and all we have is just 3 years of time."

"Then we’ll have to create something new during that time. I heard their new president wants northern expedition."

"Good, you draw up the plan."

"Understood."

While Stolypin is planning internal medicine, Kokovtsov, befitting a wartime prime minister, wants surgery.

We sought to find the answer to the depression from abroad.

==

Though the name differs by country, organizations with military command authority, the General Staff’s role is mainly to devise military strategies and operations in peacetime and to command, manage, and control during wartime.

However, unlike the typical boring and static role of such organizations, Russia’s General Staff was bustling with activity even in peacetime.

"It’s been 15 years since we received rifle deliveries and still haven’t completed distribution?"

"W-we’ve been prioritizing light machine gun distribution over rifles. Besides, replacing individual weapons costs too much money."

"I personally handled Mosin-Nagant distribution in ’91, so what’s this about? We even introduced rimless ammunition, but now not introducing rifles would be more wasteful, wouldn’t it?"

"Still, first the light machine guns that use the same ammunition type..."

"Keep going on about light machine guns... You must be a German spy! Found the Stormtrooper right here!"

Perhaps because Kuropatkin rose to the General Staff and implemented all sorts of military reforms.

While the wartime General Staff naturally commanded, managed, and controlled, the peacetime General Staff was anxious about being unable to change anything.

"Anyway, what would people who only look at paper scraps in the rear know. They need to roll around on the Eastern Front once to learn priorities with their bodies... Everyone out!"

Especially Roman, who achieved this position through a deal with the Tsar.

If a newly appointed company commander is desperate about being unable to change their company due to obsession with promotion, his position as Chief of the General Staff was essentially like receiving an advance payment.

For better or worse, Roman was in a position where he had to show results.

However, even for Roman.

"...There’s not enough money."

It was impossible to break through the Duma’s iron wall overnight and dramatically increase the budget.