Although I believe Mr. Seward probably does not truly intend to go to war with Britain, he is very likely to resort to his old tricks by displaying a tough stance against Britain to gain domestic support. Speaking of this, I assume Your Majesty might have already guessed what I am going to say, yes, I think this fellow Seward might be trying to become the second Palmerston in North America.

Since the 1840s, the Washington government has been practicing mob rule, condoning mob actions in exchange for votes, just as they did in the Oregon border dispute. White Hall has long maintained a restrained attitude towards these uncivilized people’s rude behavior, but this meaningless endurance has allowed these Yankees to become more and more audacious.

Therefore, I hope to use this lesson to teach them that from now on, Americans had better abandon their long-held belief that British patience is limitless. To be frank, this time White Hall’s swift boundary-setting with the Americans did come as a bit of a surprise to me, it seems that whether in the House of Lords or the House of Commons, everyone has had enough of those bumpkins.

Especially since our current Prime Minister is Palmerston, I think the Americans probably still haven’t figured out the difference between having Palmerston as Prime Minister and having Russell or Peel. Perhaps someone should inform them that Palmerston’s temper and thinking are exactly the same as those American mobs.

I especially want to express my respect to Your Majesty for one thing: after the Trent Affair occurred, Your country’s Foreign Secretary, Sir Edward Tufnell, immediately telegraphed London, expressing complete agreement with our stance on neutral rights of passage and urging the American government to abide by the Paris Declaration, reaffirming the view that no neutral vessel should be subjected to force by another nation because of the personnel or cargo it carries.

In fact, this stance is not only beneficial to Britain but also concerns the issues of international order and financial credit. Speaking of "credit", Your Majesty probably already knows what topic I am about to turn to, right?

Yes, I am referring to the Mexican issue.

Britain, France, and Spain are the top three creditors of Mexican Republic bonds, yet the Mexican government declared a public suspension of debt repayments and extended foreign debts for two years. This act is no longer a simple case of default, but a blatant challenge to international financial order. 𝓯𝙧𝙚𝒆𝙬𝙚𝒃𝙣𝙤𝒗𝓮𝓵.𝙘𝙤𝙢

If Your Majesty asks for my opinion, I believe my answer will not surprise you.

Yes, I support sending troops.

A government that issues bonds in London, Paris, and Madrid, yet turns around to vacation on the beach in Veracruz, does not deserve sovereignty. Anyone who does not abide by the rules in the bond market does not deserve to enjoy the dignity granted by international order.

Our warships were initially built to maintain trade routes, and our fleet is not intended to wage war against debtor nations. But, there are always some debtor nations that need a reminder from warships about the spirit of contract!

Of course, I am not saying this because I personally invested in Mexican bonds and railway bonds, please do not be swayed by reports in the Constitutional Newspaper. As you know, there are always some ill-intentioned individuals in Paris and London who like to publish slanderous remarks about upright gentlemen. Most people in the world cannot bear to see anyone flawless, so they always seize an opportunity to smear others.

However, speaking back, I earnestly ask Your Majesty to seriously consider one thing. The Mexican debt default is likely not merely due to financial difficulties, but political calculations. The current Mexican Liberals have frequent interactions with Washington, and their flow of funds, coordination in public opinion, and border passage have not happened overnight.

The British mission in Mexico has reported several times in recent months that although the Mexican Liberal forces have inconsistent policies, their frequent exchanges with the Northern Camp in the border areas are noteworthy. Although we have not yet found conclusive evidence of large-scale military coordination, there are indications that channels for civilian gun and ammunition trafficking are active near the South Texas border, and Mexican local outposts have mostly turned a blind eye to such activities, without obvious obstruction.

Your Majesty should be aware that this so-called "Civil War" sweeping North America is no longer merely an internal affair of the United States but concerns the future configuration of the entire Western world. If today the North of the United States prevails, then the wave of Republicanism is bound to make a comeback. If today we stand by idly, by the day Washington recovers the Southern States, reorganizes finances, and resumes expansion, the influence of Britain and France in the entire New World will likely disappear completely.

Under these circumstances, if Your Majesty mobilizes troops in Mexico but does not simultaneously contain its backer, it’s like a clap of thunder that only shakes the roof’s eaves, while the old beams inside remain unmoved. Although the commotion is lively for a while, come the calmed storm, the places we want to collapse remain untouched.

Therefore, curbing the Mexican government’s debt default and curbing the United States of America’s mob expansion are two sides of the same coin. To maintain monarchical order and defend the spirit of contract, we must cut from the root to achieve everlasting peace.

Your Majesty may have also noticed that since the Northern government implemented the so-called "Comprehensive blockade" around Charleston and Wilmington, not only are the Southern States embroiled in a trade predicament, but various levels of the cotton textile industry in Britain and France are rapidly approaching a critical point.

Manchester’s textile mills have already begun to limit production, layoffs and work stoppages are becoming prominent in various towns across Lancashire County. Lately, it’s heard that in Northern France, especially in Rube and Lille, weaving workshops have also reported stalled operations for three consecutive weeks. Without local officials and gentry prematurely deploying stored old materials, many factory owners would likely have already petitioned Paris for financial subsidies.

White Hall had already discussed this summer whether to bring cotton ships into Liverpool by establishing a "Neutral Corridor". However, due to Lord Russell’s concern over the North’s potential hardline countermeasures, the motion was shelved.

Currently coinciding with the Trent Affair, should Your country move first on the cotton issue, under the pretext of "protecting military supply routes in Mexico" to lift the blockade along the Charleston and Mobile lines, I am confident I can push forward this agenda in White Hall accordingly and use the Mexican debt default to persuade White Hall to agree on a united military intervention with France.

If Your Majesty can, in addition to the Mexican campaign, provide a degree of moral support to the Southern Confederation in diplomacy, or permit Southern envoys to reside permanently in Paris, even without directly recognizing the Southern regime, the effect will be enough to throw Washington into disarray.

After all, since the United States of America has consistently claimed that the Civil War is a matter of American internal affairs and does not recognize the Southern government as their belligerent party, merely labeling them as Southern insurgent forces. Since this is the case, we are in no way obliged to treat Washington’s blockade as an act of war respectfully. If they are unwilling to name the war, why should we regard their blockade seriously?

The cotton trade seems light as a feather, but in fact, it stirs the whole body. Businessmen are very realists, if the Empire cannot protect their business, then the business will not stay loyal to the Empire forever.

Hence, I implore Your Majesty in the name of an old friend to weigh carefully. Lifting the Southern ports blockade is both a righteous act and practical gain, both faithfulness and future strategizing. Just one simple nod, a port access permit, a naval patrol order, would enough to resolve the textile industry crisis across Europe and show Washington what true civilization is.

If Your Majesty has other plans, please reply in kind to let me know.

With the highest respect and the most sincere friendship.

Your old colleague, old friend, and most loyal servant.

Sir Arthur Hastings

Cabinet Secretary of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland

December 1861, at White Hall